Differences in leaving home by individual adults
Updated: Feb 14, 2018
We develop and ABM using novel data to model household life cycle (HLC) and show that HLC of slums is different from non-slum urban households.
According to the United Nations Human Settlements Program (UNHSP), the number of slum households in developing countries continues to grow by a higher proportion as compared to its encompassing city.
Traditionally, policy makers have concentrated on population control strategies by focussing on birth rates and rural–urban migration to stem the growth and emergence of slums.
However, these strategies have often failed to achieve the desired results. In the present paper we find the key underlying processes that explains the observed differences in household life cycle between slum and non-slum households.
Inefficient Household Size
We find that the slum households when compared to non-slum urban households, exhibit a large variation in the household size over the course of their life cycle, which in turn leads to inefficiency while building slum resettlement colonies.
In our paper we present two major insights to address the challenges. First, we find that high rate of home leaving among young adults is the key determinants for the large variation in the life cycle of slum households. Second, we show that reducing home leaving among young adults will reduce the formation number of new slum households and contribute to a higher but stable household size. This will lead to efficiency and higher per capita resource consumption when building capacity for slum development (resettlement colonies) as policy makers would be able to plan for a stable household size.